November’s 2011 sales activity continued to show slight improvement in many categories over November last year, closed sales were up 18.9% and pending sales were up 18.2%. New listings were down 18.1% driving inventory down to 6.2 months of supply, a .4 month reduction from last month and a whole 4 months lower than last November. The average sales price fell 4.6% and the median fell 3.4%.
In reviewing the numbers on a month to month basis, November showed a mixed bag; closed sales rose 3.2% but pending sales fell by 10.3% and new listings fell 16.7%. The average sales price saw a slight increase of .03% and the median rose 3.3%. Good news that home prices may be beginning to stabilize.
Year to date numbers showed improvements with closed sales increasing by 3.4% and pending sales rising 5.3%. New listings were down whopping 26.0%. Good news for home sellers. Home buyers, especially home buyers in the first tier are having a lot more competition from other buyers. These numbers are not destined to last. The back log of bank owned properties will be hitting the market in the next few months and will start to increase inventory numbers. For sellers this means now is the time to get your home listed!
October’s sales activity again showed improvements in the areas of closed and pending sales, with closed sales increasing 14.1% and pending sales rose 15.1%, while new listings dripped 22% when compared to October 2010. This translated to a 6.8 months of supply for inventory. A month to month comparison closed sales fell 7.1% and pending sales increased slightly 0.9%. New listings declined by 2.7%.
The average sales price fell 6.5% and the median was 6.7% lower, when comparing October this year to last. Month to month the average price decreased 3.5% and the median fell 5.6%. The average sales price decreased from $268,200 to $258,700 and the median was down from $230,800 to $217,800.
Looking at the year to date closed sales are up 2.7%, pending sales increased 4.5%, new listings fell 26.3%.
These numbers include the whole Portland Metro area and all price points. Drilling down to just the tri-county area and price point from $90,000 to $199,900 for there is only 3.6 months of supply of inventory for conventional listings. And this by any standard is a healthy market. In reviewing the next level from $200,000 to $274,900 there is 5.2 months of supply, this is still outperforming the market as a whole. Contact me for a detailed report of a particular market area or neighborhood.
September’s sales activity for the Portland metro area showed improvements in closed and pending sales when comparing September this year with last, closed sales increased by 13.4% and pending sales were up 17.5%, while new listings dropped 29.5%. Inventory levels continue to remain much lower than last year with 6.7 months of supply this year vs. 10.5 months last year, a difference of nearly 4 months less of available inventory. And again the 6.7 figure includes short sales that have accepted offers but are still listed as active listings, so that actual number is lower by 2+ months, depending on price point. To illustrate my point, in looking at active listings in the $100,000 to $250,000 price point there are 2849 homes for sale, 1593 of those are regular sales, 1044 are short sales and 212 are REO/bank owned homes. The inventor level for regular sales is only 4.4 months of supply, which is a pretty healthy market by any standard. As for including all listings in that price range the inventory levels are 5.11 months of supply, which is still performing better than the market as a whole. My point would be if you own a home in that price point, have equity and are thinking about moving up; now’s your opportunity. If you’re a buyer in that price range means there’s going to be more competition from other buyrs in this price range.
On a month to month basis, comparing August with September closed sales decreased by -12.1%, pending sales dropped by -14.9% and new listings fell by -13.1%.
Average sales prices for September declined -4.2% and the median sales price dropped -3.8%. Month to month the average price fell -1.3% and the median declined by -2.6%.
Year to date closed sales increased by 21.5%, pending rose 21.6% and new listings were off by -27.6%. The average sales price dropped 6.9% and the median fell 7.5%.
When comparing August with July 2011 closed sales decreased by -5.6% but pending sales went up by 13.4%. New listings continued to be slow and were down -2.1%.
The average sales price for August 2011 declined by -9.2% and the median fell by -10% when compared to August 2010. The average sales price for Portland Metro came in at $264,000 and the median was $220,000. When comparing August to July closed sales decreased by just -.5%, pending increased by 2.8% and new listings fell -26%.
Interest rates continue to be phenomenal bouncing around the 4.25-4.5% levels. Combine these low rates with lower home prices and you’d be amazed at what you can afford. Loan programs are available for just about every buyer. If you have questions regarding the home buying process or how to get qualified for a home loan, please feel free to contact me.
In June housing inventory was at its lowest levels since July/August 2007! And in reality inventory is actually lower than the 6 months of supply indicated by RMLS, there are many short sales that are still in “active” status that have offers accepted but are waiting for bank approval on those offers. RMLS still counts these listings as available listings and counts them in our current inventory status. For buyers this means that there is stiff competition for available listings and buyer may encounter multiple offers for bank owned, short sales and non-short sale listings that are priced at or below market value.
Closed sales were down 2.7% when comparing 2011 with 2010, pending sales were up 23.7% and new listings dropped 22.4%. Much of the reduction in new listings hitting the market are due to the fact bank owned properties at still held up in the moratorium the banks imposed last year at this time. There is a back log of bank owned homes that have already been foreclosed on and ones waiting to be foreclosed on. This wave of inventory is expected to hit late 3rd quarter to early 4th quarter as it appears banks are finally starting to get the back log of properties on to the market. Banks will hopefully not flood the market with properties causing too much downward pressure on market values but instead release them in a metered response. The increase in pending sales coupled with the drop in new listings will most likely mean even lower inventory levels for July when numbers get posted in about 2 weeks.
Average sales prices for June 2011 declined 7.8% when compared to June 2010. Median prices also declined 7.1%. For month to month sales prices increased slightly, the average sales price increased by 1.8% and the median rose 1.3%. This month to month increase is due to many well priced homes going for or above list prices due to the lack of inventory on the market.
For the 2nd quarter of 2011, sales activity continues to be mixed when compared to 2nd quarter 2010. Closed sales decreased by 11.8%, pending sales increased by 2.3% and new listings fell by 21.6%. The average sales price fell by 6.1% and the median dropped by 8.3%.
Interest rates continue to be very low and will continue to remain low for rest of the summer.
05/20/2011
April’s market continued to struggle with sales activity being down when comparing 2011 with 2010; closed sales were down -17%, pending sales were down -33% and new listings dropped -34.2%. When comparing April with March of this year closed sales slid just a bit at -.3%, pending sales decreased -.05% and new listings increased by 1.4%. Inventory increased slightly to 7.2 months of supply from 7.1 in March.
05/02/2011
The overall market activity was down when comparing March this year to March last year but those figures were up when comparing them to February this year. Inventory levels are down to 7.1 months of supply, the lowest level since May of 2010 when the $8000 tax credit fever was in full swing and was driving buyers into the market. Closed sales were down 10.2 when compared to March 2010 and pending sales were down 16.2% and new listings dropped 38.7%. When reviewing the numbers for March to February closed sales rose an impressive 50.4%, pending sales increased 26.5% and new listings grew by 6%.
04/04/2011
February’s market activity was again mixed; Portland metro saw an increase in closed sales which helped push us to the lowest inventory levels of the past 3 February’s with 10.9 months of supply. Usually January and February are our high water marks for the year for the amount of inventory on the market; February 2010 was 12.9 and 2009 was 16.6 months of supply. Closed sales were also up 5.8% when compared to February last year. Pending sales dropped 13.9% and new listings dropped 26.1%. The moratorium of foreclosures is affected the amount of new listings and artificially creating a lower inventory number. I expect the inventory numbers to rise to higher than average levels in the next couple of months and will probably continue through the 2nd and possibly 3rd quarters as the backup of bank owned properties moves through their processes.
02/28/2011
January sales activity in the Portland Metro area showed mixed results; Closed sales began the year higher than January 2009 and 2010. Inventory was also lower than both 2009 (19.2 months), 2010 (12.6 months) coming in at 11.3 months of supply at the current rate of sales. New listings fell by 20.5% in January when compared to January last year. Much of this trend is due to the lack of new REO/bank owned listings. REO/bank owned listings have slowed due to the foreclosure moratorium banks imposed on themselves from late summer 2010 until now. This has caused an artificial reduction in inventory levels for the Portland metro area. As banks start processing their foreclosures again most likely we’ll see a bubble of higher inventory levels as we move through spring and summer as the banks play catch up in processing their foreclosures.
01/31/2011
Looking back 2010; the market saw a high inventory 12.9 months of supply back in February and a low of 7 months in May. The year finished off at 7.9 months of supply the lowest level since June, nearly the same as a 2009’s 7.7 and 2.3 months lower than November. Closed Sales were down 2.9% from December 2009 but pending sales were up 6 and new listings dropped 8.5%. Much of the lacks of new listings were caused by the voluntary moratorium the banks put on foreclosures. The moratorium is expected to be lifted the first to middle of February and we should see inventory levels increase as the wave of foreclosures hit the market.
When comparing market activity in 2010 with that of 2009 closed sales dropped 0.2%, pending sales fell 2.1% and new listings rose 3%. Total sales volume for 2010 was $5.3 billion down from $5.5 billion in 2009. The average sales price dropped -2.7% and the median home price fell -2.9%. In looking at the difference between December and November last year the average price declined 5.2% and the median fell 5%.
12/03/2010
AFFORDABILITY - According to a formula from the National Association of REALTORS®, buying a house in the Portland metro area is affordable for a family earning the median income. A family earning the median income ($71,200 in 2010, per HUD) can afford 155% of a monthly mortgage payment on a median priced home ($240,000 in September). The formula assumes that the buyer has a 20% down payment and a 30 year fixed rate of 4.35% (per Freddie Mac).
11/15/2010
Quantative Easing and Mortgage Rates:
In the statement released after its November meeting, the Federal Reserve announced that it will purchase an additional $600 Billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, in what is known as another round of Quantitative Easing (or QE2). That means, including Treasury purchases from reinvesting proceeds of mortgage payments, the Fed will purchase between $850 to $900 Billion in securities through June 2011, which equals about $110 Billion per month.
Remember, Quantitative Easing is the concept of the Fed becoming a heavy buyer of Treasuries and Bonds. This is done to artificially cause those security prices to move higher under the increased demand. That demand should, in turn, cause interest rates to move lower in the hopes of stimulating the economy.
While that sounds easy enough, it’s not an exact science. In fact, not too long ago, Fed Chairman Bernanke noted that the Fed has much less experience in judging the economic effects of more QE versus their more traditional monetary policy actions. He went on to say that this "makes it challenging to determine the appropriate quantity and pace of purchases and to communicate this policy response to the public." More recently, Bernanke compared the Fed’s handling of the next round of QE2 to a golfer with a new putter, stating that the golfer has to tap lightly at first and try to figure out how to use it properly. Those words don’t exactly inspire confidence in the Fed’s ability to get QE2 right.
Even if the Fed does get it right, we have to keep in mind that Quantitative Easing has drawbacks and unintended consequences. For example, another round of Quantitative Easing will continue to load the US with debt. Additionally, QE2 would likely lead to a weaker US Dollar. While a weaker US Dollar may make our exports more attractive to foreign buyers, it could ultimately drive rates higher.
That brings us to another potential result of the Fed’s purchases: inflation. Recently, a news story explained how another round of Quantitative Easing brings the risk of "unleashing the 1970s inflation genie." Consumers who are looking to purchase or refinance a house should take note of that possibility - since even talk of inflation can impact home loan rates negatively. After all, as the Q and A section explains, a rise in inflation would be bad for Mortgage Bonds and, as a result, for home loan rates.
The point is – this story is far from over. The Fed may have announced it’s plan for QE2, but now we have to wait and see how it may benefit the economy as a whole, or negatively impact home loan rates.
ANSWER: Let’s start by clarifying the terms. Deflation is when prices on goods and services fall lower. Inflation, on the other hand, occurs when prices climb higher.
Now, when we consider those ideas in terms of home loan rates, we see that fears of deflation are good for Bonds and home loan rates. That’s because the fixed payment that a Bond provides to an investor goes further in a deflationary environment. So, the recent fears of deflation have helped Bond prices move higher and home loan rates move lower.
But the exact opposite is also true – meaning that fears of inflation negatively impact Bond prices and home loan rates. So, all the talk about Quantitative Easing and potential inflation (as discussed above) is ultimately bad for Bonds and home loan rates.
10/30/2010
Top Ten List of Things Not To Do When You're Buying A Home:
1. Do not change jobs, become self employed or quit your job.
2. Do not buy a new car.
3. Do not use credit cards for any purchases over $100. This could change your debit to income ratio just enough so you no longer quality.
4. Do not spend any savings. This can effect your reserves and you may not qualify at close if your lender asks for updated bank statements.
5. Do not omit any debts or liabilities from your loan application.
6. Do not buy funiture for your new house. Wait until the house closes before you go funiture shopping.
7. Do not apply for any new credit. Resist the urge to save 10% on that purchase by applying for that new store card.
8. Do not make any large deposits or transfers from bank accounts without letting your Loan Officer know about it first.
9. Do not change or close any bank accounts
10. Do not co-sign for someone else on another loan. This will effect your debt to income ratios.
A few more things to consider, minimum credit score is going from 620 to 640. Lenders are now always pulling credit twice, one at your application and again right before close. They will see any big purchases you make from the time of your application to close. Lenders will pull your tax returns for the past 2 years and require 2 months of pay stubs, they will also verify employment the day you sign. Being diligent to your goal of home ownership by sticking to your plan and waiting until AFTER you close to make any changes to your financial will ensure a smoother loan process.
10/17/2010
In September the Portland metro area saw average sales price dropping 4.5% and the median fell 4.0% when compared to September 2009. Closed sales decreased by 22.3%, pending sales dropped by 30.7% and new listings experienced a slight drop of 1.4%. A comparison of September with the previous months shows closed sales increased slightly by 1.3% but pending sales decreased by 6.2%. New listings fell by 7.3%. All this translates into 10.5 months of supply, just down from Augusts 11 months.
09/17/2010
August 2010 again presents us with mixed indicators for the Portland metro house market. Inventory rose just slightly to 11 months of supply from 10.8 in July, which is 3.2 months higher than August of 2009. In comparing August 2009 to this August stats show a 25% decrease in closed sale, 21.7% decrease in pending sale and a 1.3% increase in new listings. On a month to month basis, comparing August to July, closed sales slipped by only 2.2%, pending grew by 3.6% and new listings fell 5%. The good news is the average sales price for August increased again with a small gain of 1%, this is the second month in a row which the average sales price has showed a gain. The median home price remained flat, which is improved over last months’ 1.6% drop. Is this a trend showing that we’re finally at the bottom of the market? Time will show but looking on a national scale stats are indicating the same trend where home prices are 3.6% higher than they were earlier this year and the indicators are showing that this trend should continue. (From S&P/Case Shiller home price indices).
08/20/2010
July 2010 showed the full impact of the end of the home buyers tax credit; Pending sales for July to July last year showed a 29% decline in closed sales and a 24.9% decrease in pending sales. New listings rose 3.1% pushing inventory levels to 10.8 months of supply. However, the average sales price for July INCREASED 2.9% over July last year where the median decreased by 1.6%. When comparing July to June 2010 closed sales were up 22.5%, pending sales went up by 9.1% and new listings grew by 6.8%. Year to date the average sales price has decreased 6.4% and the median has dropped 6.8% The average marketing time was 130 days.
06/21/2010
Highlights for May’s sales activity had a slight decrease in inventory down to 7 months from 7.3 months of supply last month. Sales activity for May 2010 showed a mixed bag over May 2009, closed sales increased 43.7% but pending sales decreased 24.1% and new listings decreased by 10.2%.
On a month to month basis May 2010 compared April showed an incased in closed sales 5.6% while pending sales decreased 50.1%, with much of this decrease driven by the end of the federal tax credit. New listings also decreased by 26.2% over the previous month.
The average sales price for May 2010 decreased by 5.5% for the Portland metro market while the median price also dropped 4.4% when compared to May 2009.
On a month to month basis the average price fell 2.3% and the median decreased only 0.4% from May to April 2010. The average time on the market for listing so far in 2010 is 134 days.
The congress has approved a plan for extending the deadline for closing a property and the buyer receiving their tax credit from June 31 to September 31. It goes to the president for his signature now. This would sure help with the backlog of buyers trying to get their purchase loans closed and are dealing with the bottle neck at their lenders.
06/01/2010
Sales activity for the Portland metro improved in April 2010 when compared to April 2009. Closed Sales increased by 49.1% and pending sales rose 60.8% and new listings expanded by 23.8%. This decreased available inventory to 7.3 months of supply in April, down slightly from 7.8 months in March.
The average sales price decreased 3.1% and the median price dropped 4% when comparing April 2009 with 2010. Month to month priced remained relatively flat with just a minimal increase of .6% for the average price and a .05% increase for the median when comparing March to April.
Year to date, January thru April, closed sales increased 41.4%, pending sales rose 46.3% and new listings increased by 15.4% from the same period 2009.
Although the tax credit has expired interest rates remain very good. Combined with available inventory and with summer finally approaching it’s time to get out house hunting. If you think there are no loan programs for you, give me a call and we can discuss your situation. There are still loan programs to help first time buyers get into a home, even some with no down.
05/09/2010
As we ended the 1st quarter of 2010 we continued to see mixed market indicators. January saw the first increase to double digit inventory levels (12.6 months) since May of 2009 with February increasing again to 12.9 months of supply. In March we saw a lot of that inventory burn off, over 5 months actually, dropping our inventory to just 7.8 months. When comparing March 2009 with March 2010 there was a 51.9% increase in closed sales and pending sales rose 46.7% while new listings increased by 35.3%. Much of this activity is due to last minute buyers trying to cash in on the $8000 tax credit and sellers trying to attract those buyers.
03/15/2010
USDA financing is running out of money. This program is for rural homes and will provide up to 100% financing for buyers looking to buy rural properties. This program usually runs out of money every year in October or November but this year the program ran out in April. This makes just one less program for buyer to utilize for home purchases.
03/01/2010
Wow! It's been a little longer since I blogged than I thought. Here are the Portland Metro stats for January.
January started the year off as a mixed bag of indicators. When comparing January to December Pending sales rose 34.5%, closed sales fell 34.5% and new listings were up by 87.1% pushing inventory numbers to their highest level, 12.6 months of supply, since March of 2009.
1/15/2010
Date 12/4/2009
Portland metro sales continued its upward trend in October when compared to same month sales from a year ago. Pending sales increased by 64% and closed sales rose 37.1% over October 2008. New listings dropped by 4.5% which decreased our available inventory to 6.5 months, which is at its lowest level since August of 2007. Much of this activity was driven by first time home buyers trying to cash in on the original November 30th deadline for the $8000 tax credit. The credit was expanded and extended, now encompassing some current home owners and increasing income limits for those that qualify for the tax credit. Although all this activity did not help home prices, Portland metro experienced a 12.6% decrease in the average sales price and a 10.9% decrease in the median home price when comparing October 2009 with October 2009. Month to month were mixed the average was down 2.3% from September and the median was up 1.5%.
Date 10/30/2009
Why Selllers Should Keep Their Home Listed During The Holidays:
5. Buyers tend to have more available time to look at homes during the holidays.
6. You can be on the market but restrict showings on the days during the holidays the you do not want people in your home.
Date 10/29/2009
The rumors and speculation on the new tax credit are reaching fever pitch but nothing has been signed into law yet. We won't know what the final outcome is until that happens. We have at least a few days to go before the President signs the bill. Don't read too much into any of the reports or forwarded emails about what the new bill is all about, it will likely change before it becomes law.
As always, if you have any questions feel free to give me a call.
Best,
Kevin
Date 10/1/2009
Time is running out first time buyers! We are rapidly approaching the November 30th deadline to have your home sale closed to cash in on the $8000 tax credit. If you don’t have an offer in by this weekend, 10/10 it’s going to be really tough to make sure your closing happens before it’s too late.





